Comparison between Marvel and Gladstone

[ADEBLIEC@drew.edu]

From:	DANIEL::ADEBLIEC     18-FEB-1995 09:50:22.01
To:	adebliec
CC:	
Subj:	A little analysis: How far does Marvel outself the competition?

Marvel is king of the heap, right?  One of its top-20-or-so books (like
Incredible Hulk) must be outselling most all the independents, right?
Fortunately, all titles with 2nd class mailing permits are required to print
information about their circulation and print runs.  Try this on for size:

=====
			Incredible Hulk	#427	Uncle Scrooge #291
			--------------------	------------------

Print Run:		275,775 *		118,180
			262,100 **		100,732

Subscriptions:		  4,817			  4,072
			  3,400 ***		  4,194 @

Returns from Vendors:	106,958 ****		      0 @@
			105,475			      0

Est. Direct Sales:	 57,042 *****		112,528 @@@
			 47,750			 94,005

=====
Notes:

* - First number in each group is reported average for previous year (ending
	October 1, 1994 for Hulk; September 28, 1994 for Scrooge).  DC no
	longer uses 2nd call, sidestepping this disclosure.

	Additionally, with Hulk's change to "Deluxe Format", these figure
	may no longer be accessible in future years.

** - Second number is of issue closest to filing date.  Sales are typically
	higher in the summer months and during crossovers, so this lower
	number may not indicate slipping sales.

*** - Subscriptions are way down.  Possible reason: the book has jumped to
	"Deluxe Format", causing a higher price.

**** - Direct Market books are not returnable (except in rare cases).  All
	returns should be assumed to be from newsstands.

***** - "Print two copies per one sold on the newsstand" (figure supported
	by Harper's Index: 57% of newsstand magazines go unsold).  So the
	calculation is PR - S - 2*RV.

@ - Note that Gladstone's subscriptions are on the rise.  Could be caused by
	recent "please subscribe ads" or the like.

@@ - Gladstone titles are not sold in returnable venues.

@@@ - Uncle Scrooge would appear to outsell Incredible Hulk by a two-to-one
	margin.  Possibly (probably) it is available in venues where Marvel
	comics are not sold (reports are that Disney parks and stores are
	not among such venues, however).

	Additionally, these are sales which are not returnable.  That does
	not indicate actual customer purchase, just venue purchase from
	the publisher/distributor.  (I'll bet you find a lot more issues of
	Hulk in the back-issue bins than issues of Uncle Scrooge, no?)
=====

Conclusion:

Unless something is very wrong in my assumptions, if I were Marvel, I would
be *very* concerned.  This would seem to indicate that the Direct Market is
about 1/3 of Marvel's business, but that they are getting their butt kicked
in that same market.

Market share figures that we see should be looked at with skepticism: do they
refer to just the Direct Market?  Are they volume or dollar based?  Do they
include items other than comics, such as t-shirts, posters, etc.?  Lists of
top-selling comics may also be suspect.

It would appear that the only way Marvel holds onto its market share is by
sheer volume of output (ie, by crowding other comics off the stands).  On an
individual basis, the titles are not especially impressive (or even healthy).

Jim Drew      
jrd at frame.com